Thursday, April 27, 2006

Bad Week for Blair

It has been a hard week for the government, Tony Blair in particular. Three of his most senior and loyal ministers under attack, the local elections looking more and more like Labour meltdown.
Comparisons to Black Wednesday and the last days of the Major administration seem to me to be hysterical. Things are nowhere near as bad as they were when the pound crashed out of the ERM and interest rates rose 50% in one day.
No matter what scandal hits the Blair government commentators must try to remember the vital difference between 1996 and 2006 - it's the economy stupid.
Everything is fine for most people - interest rates are low, unemployment pretty much non-existent, house prices are bouyant. There are many issues that the votes feel negative about, such as the war, but as we saw in 2005 that need not be translated into losing power.
Despite the excitement in the Westminster village about the coming of David Cameron, he seems to have made little impact on the polls. Both the main parties are stuck at around 34 - 37% each.
The media love a crisis, so three at once is like christmas for all the good boys and girls of the press. Black Wednesday is a catchy headline, but very far from the reality.
Blair has come out fighting, accusing the media of turning every problem into a crisis, and assuring the deeply-uninterested public that he is working hard to solve all our problems.
Will he carry on as PM for another two years, as some fear? It would be tough on Gordon Brown if he did. Given the events of this week, he may not have any Blairite ministers left.
The reshuffle, rumoured to happen this week, may well indicate what we can expect from the next years of Labour goverment.
politicsjunkie can only hope he takes the opportunity to get rid of a whole tranche of boring old men who seem to have been squatting there since 1997.
The interesting question about the reshuffle in my mind is - who are these junior ministers that are ready to be promoted? Who are these outstanding new bucks ready to be rewarded with their own department?