Blaenau Slap for Blair

While governments are expected to lose by-elections, the failure of the Labour party to retake Blaenau Gwent is a major blow to the authority of the prime minister.
The seat is the stuff of Labour legend. It was here that Aneurin Bevan spoke to his coal-mining constituents about the brave new world of a National Health Service. He was MP for 31 years, succeeded by Michael Foot.
For decades Blaenau Gwent was the heart and soul of the Labour party - in 1987 and 1992 it was their safest seat - the LibDems and Tories have never won more than 10% of the vote.
The imposition of woman shortlists in 2005 caused division amongst party activists, and independent Peter Law took the seat from Labour with a whopping majority - 58% to Labour's 32%. In 2001 Labour had 72% of the vote.
The party line was that it was a blip - an isolated local case. With the result of the by-election last night however, it seems to be a pattern. Independent candidates took both the Westminster seat and the Welsh Assembly seat from Labour.
For all the protestations from Hazel Blears that the Blaenau Gwent problem is just a little local difficulty, it does betray a serious disaffection with the government amongst loyalists.
Coupled with the strong showing of the BNP at the council elections earlier in the year, it is yet another indicator that the New Labour project has failed its core constituency.
New independent MP Dai Davies took 46% of the vote - Labour, despite intense campaigning, only increased their share by 5%.
The loss of the Assembly seat is potentially a more serious loss. If Labour had retaken the seat they would have regained their majority in the Assembly - Mr Law's widow Trish was elected with a thumping majority.
Since the start of the New Labour project, the heartlands of the party have been taken for granted. The focus seems to have been on voters in London and the South East - and now Labour are paying the price. As new MP Dai Davies said in his acceptance speech:
"A political revolution is starting in Blaenau Gwent tonight.
"Political parties take note. You take people for granted at your peril. It's the people that matter, not the political parties.
"The dinosaurs thought they would live for ever - they died out. Political parties take note and listen to the people or you're in trouble."
Where does this leave Labour? It certainly gives credence to those who feel a return to traditional socialist values is needed after so many years of Blairist agendas.
The message from the party about the result seems confused. Hazel Blears says it is a freak result, a family feud. In the same breath she says that the party must listen more.
Some in the Westminster village have tried to blame the poor results on Charles Clarke, of all people. The idea that the people of the Welsh valleys rejected the Labour party they have voted for all their life because of a few comments from a bitter ex-minister is baffling.
Labour lost Blaenau Gwent because the core supporters of the party hate the direction their beloved Labour has taken.
Blair has always seemed ill at ease in his own party. This result sends a clear message to Downing St and to the rest of the Labour party - it is time for a change. Not a cosmetic Blair "change". Hazel Blears' desire to "listen" is not enough - she must act.
The people have Blaenau Gwent have rurned up the heat on the prime minister. He will be relieved the parliamentary session is almost over.
He can and will make it to the end of July and remain in office until the autumn. But it is going to be one hell of a Labour conference.

www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

Bromley disaster for Cameron

June 29th 2006 was a bad night for both Labour and Conservatives. While it was widely anticipated that the government would not re-take the Welsh valleys seat of Blaenau Gwent, many had expected to see some sort of Cameron effect in the safe Kent seat vacated by Eric Forth.
In the event the Tories very nearly lost Bromley & Chislehurst to the LibDems. The seat is almost entirely leafy suburbia, the Tory candidate was a well-known local councillor and Assembly member, and the party are riding high in the polls nationally.
Many commentators thought the threat to the Tories might come from the plethora of ultra-right wing candidates from the National Front, UKIP and English Democrats. In the event only UKIP polled above 500 votes, pushing Labour into a humiliating fouth place.
The story of Bromley & Chislehurst is the LibDem resurgence - the party are by-election masters, and they came very close to causing the biggest upset since they took Dunfermline West in the Labour heartland.
It is normal for the governing party to lose by-elections - not the opposition. Labour did get 10,241 votes in 2001, down to 1,925 - humiliating for the candidate involved, but the party have bigger problems in Wales.
The LibDems are jubilant, understandably. The past six months have been particularly difficult for them, and it is a slap in the face for all those briefing against Ming Campbell.
For Cameron, the problem is more complex. Some right-wingers in his own party are pointing out that the Thatcherite Eric Forth held the seat easily throughout the resurgence of New Labour - he had a majority of 11,118 in 1997.
The "new" Tories under Cameron barely held onto the seat - perhaps it is their core voters who aren't impressed with the new green gay-friendly party.
No-one can argue that Bromley is a special case like Blaenau Gwent. This is the Tory heartland. What went wrong?
Turnout was down 28% in Bromley - that could be a factor. It could be argued that Cameron merely did not energise the voters in this election. A poll for YouGov shows he is more popular than either Blair or Brown as PM in the country at large.
By-elections are always unpredicatable that is their nature. The questions being asked today at Conservative Central Office will be - did we try hard enough?
Party chairman Francis Maude said:
"David's been rightly, driving a process of change in the party - and the simple truth from this election result is that we have to drive that change faster, wider and deeper.
"Because we have to supply more and more positive reasons for people to vote for us. And I'm sure we will do so."
Perhaps they will. Bromley could just be a blip on the matrix. The other worry for Central Office is the result achieved by UKIP candidate Nigel Farage. The party have already got 12 MEPs and 30 councillors. Their strong showing in this by-election could prove problematic for Cameron in his attempts to shift the party to the centre ground.
It might explain the strongly Euro-sceptic position Cameron has taken in leaving the EPP grouping in the European Parliament.

www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

Bromley & Chislehurst Blaenau Gwent

Hey
There are two by-elections tomorrow, 29th June 2006.

The first is in what used to be the safest Labour seat in Wales.
Blaenau Gwent is a historic seat in the Valleys - former MPs include founder of the NHS Nye Bevan and Labour party leader Michael Foot.

Peter Law caused the biggest upset of the 2005 election, defeating the Labour party in one of the safest seats in the county. Protesting against the imposition of all-women shortlists, he took Blaenau Gwent on a swing of 49%.
Will his close friend Dai Davies keep the independent spirit of the Valleys or will the seat fall back to Labour?
Law's seat in the Welsh Assembly is also being contested.

The second by-election is also being held in another "safe seat", this time Bromley & Chislehurst.

There here has been some controversy over the inclusion of some of the A-list of Tory candidates in the selection process. Members of the Cameron beautiful people did not even make it into the final few.
In the end London assembly member Bob Neill was chosen to fight the seat.

In May 2005 Forth was re-elected with a majority of 13, 342 and 51.1% of the vote. It is highly likely that the Tories will retain the seat.
They are facing a lot of opponents from right-wing and fascist parties - UKIP, English Democrats, National Front - so keep an eye on how many voted they get in this deeply Conservative area on the outskirts of London.

There will be updates on these by-elections on Thursday and Friday!
Keep reading and do not forget the 100s of pages of politics news and opinions on www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

Will He Stay or Will He Go Now?

The rumours about the date of the PM's departure have gone into overdrive.
The fall out from Charles Clarke's barbed comments about the government's lack of direction has apparenly forced the PM's hand, say Brownites.
The time has come for a formal handover date - the papers today are full of stories that Blair will make an announcement at party conference in the autumn.
Most commentators think the PM wants to stay on until May 2007, the psychologically important 10 years in office.
This is despite the fact that Clarke actually supported the PM remaining up to 2008. Whatever the reason for Clarke's comments, they have not so much wounded Blair as highlighted the obvious. He has said he is going to go - so when?
The plain fact is that no-one but Blair can be sure when he will go. A crisis could force him out of office, damaging the party into the process.
There is some benefit in the PM staying - there are the elections for the Welsh and Scottish assemblies in May 2007 - Labour are expected to get a kicking.
Some argue that Blair should take the heat for that and then leave.
There is a counter-arguement that if Blair was to go soon, the electorate in Scotland and Wales would have a chance to vote for the new Brown government.
The bookies, always the most level-headed political observers, have pretty much ruled out a Blair departure this year. The odds on 2008 are lengthening, the smart money is sometime in 2007.
Then again, one thing this PM is not is predicable.
www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

PMQ -- Honeymoon is over for Cameron

The PMQ honeymoon for David Cameron seemed to come to an end this week, with Tony Blair brushing aside a series of questions designed to highlight differences with the Chancellor.
Cameron picked a rather small canvas to draw on. Gordon Brown's shock announcement about the timing of a decision on renewing the Trident nuclear missiles may have angered some in the Labour party, but as the PM pointed out, it was all in the manifesto.
Blair backed his Chancellor, saying he also supported a replacement, that the House would be "consulted fully" and refused to be drawn on whether there should be a vote.
The Tory leader used up four questions on this issue of a vote for MPs, trying - and failing - to highlight disagreements between No10 and No11. Blair stuck to his guns, stating that the means of consultation would be announced in due course.
Cameron tried to raise a laugh by describing the PM as the "David Brent of Downing St, hanging round the office with nothing to do."
This was a tactical mistake - Blair looked energised and ready for a fight. He 'called out' Cameron over his new policy on a Bill of Rights - finally the Tories had a policy - why did they not want to discuss that? The PM quoted Ken Clarke's comment that Cameron's new policy was "xenophobic nonsense".
Blair was "happy to have a policy debate" - he was clearly enjoying himself and the Tories for once looked discomfited. Cameron declined to ask a fifth question - Blair 1, Cameron 0.
The nuclear issue was raised again by veteran dissident Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn - he wanted to know how we could comply with the 1970 non-proliferation treaty and renew Trident. In a nostalgic blast of Old Labour rhetoric, Corbyn demanded we start disarmament now. The PM did not agree.
Towards the end of the session, Tory new boy James Duddridge, in a show of petulant questioning worthy of Kevin the teenager, wanted to know what part of "will we get a vote on Trident" did the PM not understand. Not quite sure what sort of a substantive answer Duddridge thought he would get, The PM assured him he understood the question and the proceeded not to answer it.
Ming Campbell asked a well-phrased set of questions about the hostage drama in Gaza. The LibDems often talk about Ming's gravitas, and in another confident performance he got the House to listen and the PM gave a full answer.
The other theme of this PMQ was backbench Labour attempts to smear the Tories. Gwyn Prosser wanted to know why the Tory council in Kent was closing 9 primary schools. Paul Farrelly wanted to know the PM's views on a LD/Tory alliance in Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Ann Keen raised the new alliance that Hounslow Tories have made with a former National Front organiser. Adrian Bailey almost got one in about an alliance between Tories and the BNP in Tipton, but the Speaker wasn't having it.
David Cameron used up his final two questions on a bascially meaningless exchange about the World Trade Organisation talks. Will they be resolved? Who knows? Who cares? He did not mention Charles Clarke at all - another odd tactical position.
Blair had an easy ride. The various Tory attack questions failed to hit any targets. He even had a bit of fun with Alex Salmond, the leader of the SNP. Salmond wanted to know when the Act of Settlement, which discriminates against Catholics, would be repealed.
It doesn't matter what Salmond asks - he could ask the PM if he is partial to cream buns - the answer is always the same. You support Scottish independence which would be a disaster for Scotland. It must be comforting for the PM to know that with one MP not matter what the question, the answer is always the same.

READ MORE PMQ REPORTS HERE www.politicsjunkie.co.uk/pmq_home

Labour MP tries to get Lad Mags on the top shelf.

Labour MP Claire Curtis-Thomas has introduced a bill to limit the availability of sexually explicit magazines and newspapers.
The ten minute rule bill had been heavily trailed, sparking debate in newspapers and internet sites about these new "semi-porn" publications.
The House listened to the MP for Crosby in silence - it was a telling contrast to Clare Short's attempts to ban Page 3 girls in the 1980s. On that occasion the Tories booed and ogled Short, belittling her stance as mad feminism.
Curtis-Thomas is no great orator, yet she managed to make a moving, principled speech. I was struck at one point that she was truly shocked by the nature of these publications, and it made me question why I had not questioned my own attitude to them.
She started by telling the House she could not quote from the publications in question, The Daily Sport, FHM, Nuts and Zoo. The Speaker had judged their content too explicit to be said out loud in the company of adults - yet children have access to it in every newsagent in the country.
Curtis-Thomas did not call for censorship - she did want MPs to be aware of what young boys were reading, to question the effect it must have on them. She quoted the thousands of adverts for chatlines, hard core porn and prostitutes in the pages of "newspaper" The Sport, illustrated with hundreds of images of women. She spoke with grim disgust at lad mags that offer breast enhancement for readers' girlfriends as prizes, the glorification of mysogyny that these publications represent.
The attitude of retailer WH Smith was pilloried as profiteering from pornography, unwilling to take responsibility to anyone but their profit margin. Curtis-Thomas proposed a new government office to oversee a new enforcable code. These publications should display warnings and be restricted in terms of display and age of sale. Similar precautions work well in other media, such as the TV watershed, film classification and internet controls for children.
A ridiculous woman called Angela Watkinson rose to oppose the Bill. No, I had never seen or heard of her either. According to Wikipedia she is the MP for Upminster.
Watkinson told the House of her own experience with The Sport - she found one in her postbag one day and had a flick through. In a bizarre comment from a Conservative, she said she saw nothing morally wrong with the content. The women who willingly participated in these pictures had after all been paid.
The bill "took no account of the women portrayed", as if their right to be exploited was somehow under attack from this child-protection measure.
Her almost breathtaking ignorance of the reality of the porn industry led her to refer to some images of models wearing nothing but a "comely expression" -- to giggles from some of her more puerile colleagues. A flash of the Tories of old.
Diverging wildly from the point, then declared that the lack of a magazine aimed at teenage boys was the real problem here. Why, she wondered, had no publisher filled this gap in the market, as they had for girls.
Labour MPs looked puzzled at this foray into magazine marketing - was Watkinson seriously suggesting that teenage boys would then skip over the breast-obsessed Zoo or Nuts for a boys' version of Jackie? Has she ever met a teenage boy??
Having shown ignorance of the nature of pornography, the workings of the mag trade and the sex-fuelled reality of a teenage boy's existence, Watkinson then seemed to remember the nature of the bill.
A clear definition of pornography and an extension of the Obscene Publications Act to include the offending publications would be enough. Watkinson finished by saying she supported the bill as "trying to do the right thing the wrong way."
You never would have guessed she cared.

www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

My Birthday - there is some politics in there ...

The day started with a phone call - 3.40am - Andy the village idiot. He wanted to know how to get to Primrose Hill for the birthday picnic. Apparently he then managed to get himself connected to the Met Office and asked them if it was going to rain. So it is nice to know that the Met Office are there at that time in the morning, and happy to discuss the weather with drunken fools.
The pain and swelling in my mouth made me unable to get back to sleep. A quick look in the mirror confirmed the worst - what looked very like a dental abcess is swelling visibly.
My dentist doesn't do emergencies - so what to do? I was impressed to find my local hospital has an emergency walk-in centre for minor injuries - and another one for dental emergencies.
Fearing the worst sort of NHS refugee-camp service, I arrived at 9am to find the whole thing quick, clean and very easy to access. So the NHS is improving. An X-ray confirmed the abcess and the disappointing treatment - anti-biotics should bring the swelling down. Until then get used to looking like Quasimodo.
Finally arrive on Primrose Hill, realising I have not brought any picnic things such as cups or plates.
At about 4pm I go down to the toilets with Andy the village idiot. The toilets are being cleaned by a pretty fierce looking Cockney pensioner, who tells us to piss off and wait till she is finished. Nice to see clean toilets.
While loitering outside, we notice a shabbily-dressed man with a large 1990s-style video camera. It is obvious he is filming all the children as they walk past. Spotting some CPSO's, Andy does his civil duty and reports him.
This is where we learn why people are reluctant to get involved. We had to stand there for over an hour, giving statements to the CPSO's (twice) then going through the whole thing orally with five different officers. Then they wanted US to come down to the station to give a statement. We refused, so they took written statements in the park - that took over an hour.
By the time they finally left at 8.30pm, most of my friends had already gone home.
Worst of all was the atmosphere around the police activity. Gangs of chav parents were prowling around watching, demanding to know what was happening and muttering darkly about what they would like to do to paedophiles. Even worse were the hysterical middle-class parents, who NOW all rushed forward to claim they saw everything and he was sure they were filming their child - I mean he is so gifted.
It put all of the fuss about Sarah's list into context. The collected chavs would have happily beaten that man to death for what he had done. Now the government seems to agree with the News of the World that these same parents have a "right" to know the whereabouts of sex offenders.
It was deeply uncomfortable to be standing by a police car, feeling all those angry eyes on your back. The police took the man away eventually, but they handled the whole thing very badly. They seemed excited in an unseemly way to have "got one". One officer practically recited the Public Order legislation at us and demanded to know if we were "distressed" by the man's actions. When we affirmed we were he replied: "that's all I need to nick the bastard - thanks."
It seems that prejudice is alive and well in the police - and everyone else. We can always pick on paedophiles.
Perhaps next time the News of the World puts pressure on the Home Office about sex offenders, they should reply that the threat to children is not from marauding strangers.
Next time the chav hordes start screaming about protection of children, perhaps someone would point out to them that the danger to their kids is already known to them.
The vast majority of children are abused by family members and others known to the family. The man in the park may pose a danger - but the greater danger is your neighbour, or father, or friend. They are much more likely to be abusing your child.
It will be interesting to see the NotW carry that message to its outraged readers.

F*****ing Football Fakers!

The House rose early yesterday because of a football match. The discussion of the establishment of an old persons' commissioner for Wales was overshadowed by posturing middle-aged men commenting at every opportunity how much they support England.
Despite the efforts of deputy speaker Sylvia Heal to draw MPs back to the business at hand, South African born satsuma-impersonator Peter Hain made clear he wanted to be out of the chamber in time for kick-off against Trinidad. On those odd days where there isnt a match for him to talk about, Peter likes to spend his spare time being Secretary of State for Wales. And Northern Ireland.
There is something so unsettling when politicians feign to be as interested as the proles in their prole pastimes. Hain came across as one of those middle-class middle-aged twats of which London has many.
They developed an interest in "footie" during the mid-90s as part of their overall Britpop makeover.
They did toy with the Mockney accent for while, but you know, since Jemima and Sam came into the picture it really wouldnt be right to speak sloppily in front of the children. These sad creatures nervously expound their love of "footie" and how darn passionate they feel about it. Best not to mention that funny feeling they get in their groin sometimes when they see David Beckham and Frank Lampard in a post-goal embrace.
No - they love the footie ball because somewhere in their very fragile masculinity it makes them think they are "real" men, to be anything ANYTHING except what they are - wet middle-class effete and pussy-whipped. Go down to Stoke Newington High St and throw a brick - you will hit about 20 of these creatures. Normally they are mooching round the health food shop, boring the shit out of people with their constant upbeat chatter, their loved-to-within-an-inch-of-their-lives children in tow.
For some reason, for 4 weeks every 4 years, these de-balled marys sieze on the World Cup. Walking with my brother to the pub the other day, one of these creatures was outside watering his garden. My brother is a parent, which means all these cretins think they can attempt to engage him with what they think is light masculine banter. It is, of course, excrutiatingly off-key and always delivered in that slightly nervous tone, like if they say the wrong thing all that teasing they used to get at school will come back.
"not watching the match?" was his opener, followed by "Do you know the score? Yeah - thats why i am outside - can't bear to watch it." To which my brother replied: "Big Italy fan are you?"
To which Hackney twat replied - "oh nooo I am supporting Ghana."
That just about sums up the whole artifice. You just dont get football mate. My brother was having his nose broken in the not-very-Highbury-like stands of Cliftonville in Belfast when he was 17 - and having my ma fix it in the front room by smacking it back into place - THATS FOOTBALL SUPPORTING.
Anyway. Hain was at it yesterday. His classic remark was that he is flying an England flag from the balcony of his London flat - but not from his house in Wales. Thanks for that Peter. Be seen to be supporting the team - but only where it is politically advantagous.
And on a final note, we are just loving Sylvia Heal in the chair. Reminiscent of the glory days of Betty Boothroyd - most MPs need a good slap round the back of the legs, and the pissed-off nanny approach that Heal emulates is often a delight to watch.

Prime Ministers Questions was a bad tempered affair

Tony Blair and David Cameron clashed repeatedly over prison sentences in a heated and bad-tempered PMQ.

The start of the session was somewhat muted - Barnsley MP Eric Illsley asked a closed question asking the PM to consider recalling the Bichard inquiry set up after the Soham murders. Illsley was unhappy about the implementation of the inquiry's recommendations, in particular the national database of those who are a danger to children.

Mr Blair declined to recall Sir Michael Bichard to report on progress, said that data-sharing is at an advanced stage and acknowledged the database will not be complete until 2010.

The solemnity was broken by Plaid Cymru MP Elfyn Lloyd. He was just getting into a rant about the Home Secretary when the Speaker interrupted him. Mr Speaker was surprised at an MP of Lloyd's experience would make such a simple error. Supplementaries on a closed question must refer to the topic, unlike the usual open questions at PMQ.

Everyone laughed, and Lloyd missed his turn. At this point Joan Walley asked the one we are used to, at which Tony Blair did what he does every week. For at least the fifth week running, the PM drew attention to the death of another British soldier.

Then he listed his engagements - none of which involved visiting the injured or the families of the dead.

It had to happen sometime. We got away with it last week. Strangely it was a women MP who raised the World Cup, urging the prime minister to wish the England team success. Joan Walley then lightened the mood further, name-checking a report into European sport instigated by "Captain Caborn", sports minister Richard Caborn.

She got a bit carried away with her own success and was handed a yellow card for talking too long - told to sit down by the Speaker.

The PM did wish the team well. This left David Cameron with the difficult task of mourning a British soldier and then praising the national football team. He handled it with skill, and asked his first question - 40 days of the new home secretary. In that time he accused Reid of undermining his department, shelving government policies and misleading the House.

This seemed to anger Blair, who gave us a long explanation of the new sentencing regime contained in the 2003 Criminal Justice Act. Guess who voted against it.

Cameron came back with an emphatic "Right!" and demonstrated that all those perverts and murderers were let out because of Labour's sentencing policy.

Blair responded with a pretty furious "Excuse me! But the right honourable gentleman is talking absolute rubbish!" When Blair is over-polite it is a sign he has been needled. The exchanges descended into more argy-bargy and accusations, with both men trying to convince the other they were wrong. Blair accused Cameron of talking tough to the press and voting soft in the House - in fact he said it twice.

Cameron said John Reid should stop blaming everyone else and get in with his job. He was given a rough ride by backbench Labour MPs, facing such a wall of noise at one point out the obvious: "The only reason they are shouting is because they don't like it!" They clearly didn't like it.

Neither did the Speaker. He named and shamed, getting to his feet to tell the MP for Wansdyke: "Mr Norris, I know you are enjoying yourself, but do not shout at me."

The next backbench question wanted the same answers on sentencing from the PM, but the barracking and shouting died away as Cardiff MP Julie Morgan raised the case of a three-year-old girl in her constituency. The girl was abducted and abused - her attacker could be out again in five years. She wanted assurances from the PM. He told a silent House he would do his best.

Next, Ming Campbell gave another strong performance. He chose to ask about the cost and waste of nuclear power, and wanted to know why the government had changed its mind on new builds.

Strangely, instead of dismissing the question, the PM answered it in some detail, listing the reasons he feels are behind the need to use all available power sources. Why is he being so nice to Ming?

Cameron had another go with a pair of questions about NHS nurses that made little impact, though he did make quite a bit out of Patricia Hewitt's "crass insensitivity" in telling nurses about the best year in the NHS - ever! Which was 2006, apparently.

Blair batted him away, saying the Tories opposed pay deals, extra jobs and wanted to take away the nurses' pensions. Those mean Tories.

The PM, with the efficiency of a pest controller, dealt with questions on the Forest Gate incident, ID cards, local government, parole, public sector pensions, the Saudis, IRA decommissioning and pardons for WW1 deserters with a series of non-answers.

It was a heated session, but while Cameron managed to anger the PM, he most certainly did not defeat him. Blair is the master at this particular game.

www.politicsjunkie.co.uk

Blair is in trouble. No, the other one

PM says that the Commissioner of the Met Police has his full confidence. Better start packing up your office then, sir.

Ken Livingstone has also stood up for the Commissoner, and in characteristic form turned his fire on someone else and blamed them. Ken says the IPCC, who investigate complaints against the Police, are leaking everything to the press.

To be fair, the IPCC are a joke anyway. Supposed to be "independent", over 80% of their investigators used to work for ... the police. If they are leaking it is a reflection of how many coppers and ex-coppers do not care for the stance that Ian Blair has taken, trying to fundamentally change the culture of the Met.

However, despite all this support there is still a lot of questions to be answered about the Stockwell shooting. Why did the Commissioner tell the press that he was a mad Muslim terrorist in a big coat with a bomb, when it was already known that he was a peaceful Brazilian guy on his way to work?

It looks like Blair is being undermined by his subordinates, chief gobshite among them being Dep Asst Commissioner Brian Paddick. This publicity junkie has been vocal about his dislike of some of Blair's policies. Other senior officers have been too.

If only the shambles at Forest Gate could have been avoided. Anyone who watched two innocent British Muslims guys tell teh press how THEY felt when the police stormed into their house, how upset THEY are at their treatment both at arrest and during 8 days of interrogation, will know just how bad this situation is for the police.

If heads have to roll, I think Paddick and the rest of the awkward squad should be shown the door before Ian Blair.

Conservative Logo

Word reaches us that David "call me Dave" Cameron is continuing his rebranding of the Tories with a new logo.
No word yet on what he has got in mind! Perhaps something green, like a wind turbine.
Personally I think that an animal might be the way to go. An elephant perhaps - they never forget.
Post your ideas for what the new logo should be!

Rickitt Fails To Make The Grade

Poor Adam Rickitt. It has emerged that the most prominent of David Cameron's A-list candidates has not even made it into the final 20 being considered to succeed Michael Howard as MP for Folkestone.
Is does seem that constituencies are resistant to the "beautiful people" Cameron wants to impose on them. We saw the Bromley and Chislehurst Conservatives choose a middle-aged white man to fight the upcoming by-election, rejecting several of the A-list in the process.
So which constituency is right for Adam Rickitt? I would suggest any with a large gay population would be a winner!

New Host for My Blog

Hello!
For those of you who read the blog through www.politicsjunkie.co.uk will notice that we are now hosted by blogger.com
myspace was proving to be troublesome. The archive of blogs from March 2006 onwards will be added to blogger.com when i can be bothered

UN Secretary General Tony Blair

Sky News asked the PM straight out at his monthly press conference today: are you angling for the UN Secretary General job?
Blair gave an unusually limp response, he had been elected for a full term only a year ago ... you know the rest.
Blair's recent speech at Georgetown University in Washington on the future of the UN is the most recent evidence that he might want the top international job. Seen by many as a manifesto, the PM set out his vision of a new, strenghtened, pro-active UN.
There is no doubt that Blair would relish a prominent international role when he leaves Downing St. As a former PM, a position in the European Commission would probably be sligtly below him, fit only for the Mandelsons and Kinnocks of this world.
No, the European Commissoner job would not be fitting for a former leader of a major nation. The EU Presidency might have been an option, but the rejection of the Nice treaty by French and Dutch voters means that reform of the EU has stalled. There is still no EU president.
In modern politics, what leaders do after they leave office is becoming increasingly important. Bush senior and Clinton have followed the example of Jimmy Carter, becoming involved in humanitarian work. Given the nature of Tony Blair, it is hard to imagine him leaving Downing St in his mid-50s to retire into obscurity.
Given the nature of Tony Blair, it is wise that his successor ensures he keeps his nose out of British politics once he leaves No 10. We do not want a repeat of the Thatcher/Major dynamic, with the deposed leader constantly whispering off stage.
So we are left with the prospect of a Blair-run UN. One small problem - the Arab world. Can anyone really see Blair getting support from people who regard him as a war criminal?
Hmm. He might have to settle for a role similar to that of former Irish president Mary Robinson - a UN High Commissioner. Perhaps not for Human Rights though.

Jack Straw is the latest contender for DPM

In an interview with The Spectator, Leader of the House Jack Straw has confirmed he is interested in John Prescott's job.
It would seem that Prescott is dead in the water, an image that puts one in mind of Robert Maxwell. His colleagues are lining up to declare their interest in putting themselves forward for election.
Just as Blairites feared, the jostling for the deputy leadership looks more and more like a dry run for the real contest.
Alan Johnson was an early front-runner. English and enemy-free, he seemed an ideal antidote to Prescott.
Almost immediately, heavy-weight Cabinet minister Peter Hain announced he was also interested. His supporters stressed that he had considerable union support - important in an election where the unions have a third of the votes.
Hain-boosters also commented on how Hain was much admired by Gordon Brown.
All three would also be strong candidates to challenge Gordon "Arctic Monkeys" Brown for the leadership, if they had the balls.
Lovely Harriet Harman weighed in at the weekend, banging the feminist drum. Labour just had to have a female deputy leader she told anyone who would listen.
Yesterday on the Daily Politics, Harman stated several times that Britain had never had a female PM. Strange how people always forget Margaret Thatcher was biologically female.
But of course, if you want a woman deputy, there are other options. Tiny Blairite Hazel Blears thought she would make a good deputy, as does Patricia Hewitt.
It seems unlikely that Hewitt, Harman and Blears are really after the leadership. They would all make good deputies. There is an argument for a woman deputy - indeed many forget that Margaret Beckett was leader of the Labour party after the death of John Smith. She was an outstanding leader, she led the party with immense dignity and oversaw the election of Blair and her own replacement with Prescott.
As for Hain, Straw and Johnson, all three seem more interested in being leader of the party. All three would make a strong challenge to Brown.
Poor John Prescott. Six of his colleagues are openly discussing his job. That can't fill him with confidence about his future.

Westminster Lockdown

While attending a meeting about the meaning of freedom at Portcullis House tonight, I found myself locked out of the building, along with hundreds of others.
A major security alert led to the entire parliamentary complex being locked down. No-one was allowed to enter or leave for almost an hour. I could see gangs of distressed MPs such as Liam Fox and Michael Gove on their mobiles, explaining they literally couldn't leave.
It was revealed later that a man had thrown a suspect powder around in the central lobby. He was protesting a decision of the High Court that had left him bankrupt.
Police concerns about anthrax or other airborne poisons led to the lockdown. Lessons were learnt from the Fathers4Justice protest two years ago where protesters threw a purple powder at Tony Blair during PMQ. On that occasion the PM and others left the chamber and the building - potentially infecting a large area. Hence the lockdown, barring people for leaving or entering the building.
Eventually I got inside. Going through the scanners, I forgot that my dictaphone was in one of my pockets. It set off the alrams and I was body searched vigourously. It was quite a turn-on actually.

PMQ

It's a miracle - but MPs managed to get through thirty minutes of questions to the PM without mentioning football, Germany, metatarsals or England flags.
Well done!

World Cup Bandwagon rolls into Westminster

Harold Wilson lost the 1970 election, shortly after England lost the 1970 World Cup. Wilson was sure there was a link - and ever since politicians have watched the World Cup closely. Will a win for England in 2005 buoy up support for the Labour government?
Ministers are making a meal of their support for England. Culture minister Tessa Jowell has festooned her official car with England flags - she even has a set of decidedly chav-looking England furry dice draped over the rear-view mirror.
David "call me Dave" Cameron has gone one better - arriving for PMQ on his bike, complete with England flag. When asked who he was supporting, the PR man bellowed "England" with all the force of a football hooligan. And he wasn't wearing his helmet - again.
Now the PM has announced that the England flag will fly from the Downing St flagpole on the days when the national team are playing.
Where does all this nationalism leave Gordon Brown and the numerous other Scots who actually run the government? Brown is a real football fan: will we see him supporting England?
England winning the World Cup will be a major national event - could it also lead to a more English identity becoming apparent?
If so there will be some tricky issues for MPs to deal with - why are so many Scots running England, when Scotland has its own parliament?
If England win the World Cup, that is. Like, never gonna happen! It will be the usual - they will make it to the quarter or semi-finals and lose on penalties. Usually to Argentina or Germany.

Tories Surge In Polls

The weekend press was full of more rumours about Prescott - the latest opinion polls show just how damaging the whole affair has been for the government.
The Cameron effect is real, and his party have surged ahead of Labour by 10 points.
The latest survey puts the Tories on 41% to Labour's 31%. Cameron has been leader for six months. While the Westminster village have been sniping about his trips to glaciers and attempts at soft campaigning, it seems he has been making an impact in the country.
The poll was an Ipsos/Mori survey for The Sun. The LibDems slipped three points to 18%.
Watch out this week for more Green Tory policies: Cameron will be visiting an Ikea store as the chain announces plans to charge customers for plastic bags.
Last week Hazel Blears told the party she now chairs that the Tories are resurgent. A couple more bad months like May and they may be into government before Labour get out of the starting blocks.

Alan Johnson Eyes Up Prescott's Job

What could be more old Labour? It used to be John Prescott's working class story that warmed the cockles of socialist hearts - he won a boxing contest when working as a steward on a cruise liner in the 50's. He was awarded his prize by patrician Tory PM Alec Douglas-Home, who was travelling first class. Who would have guessed that one day that steward who was handy with his fists would go on to be deputy PM.
Now it is Alan Johnson who has the real-working credentials. Dorneywood was on his old route as a postman, he revealed in job interview for GMTV.
How wonderfully symbolic it would be for Johnson to return to the country estate through the front door?
It seems Labour are in need of a new Prescott, and the education secretary thinks he fits the bill. He has declared his interest in the deputy role, while of course giving his full support to croquet-John.
As the first former trade union leader to enter the cabinet in over 40 years, he is well placed to win over the influential union vote in the event of a contest. He has been cheeky, though, to declare his interest so blatantly.
Perhaps he has calculated that Prescott will have to go, and that a popular candidate with wide support from the unions and grassroots will be a shoo-in for the job.
Johnson is a shrewd operator, and it cannot have escaped his mind that if Labour lose the 2009 election, the new deputy leader will be in a leading position to take the party into opposition.

Th 1st June - Prescott Gives Up His Very Big House in the Country

The Deputy PM gave up his country estate, Dorneywood, in a statement yesterday. He said press attention about his use of the 21-room Queen-Anne style house was getting in the way of doing his job.
Poltical pressure on him intensified after he was pictured playing croquet at the Buckinghamshire mansion while officially in charge of the country.
Surely this is the end for Prescott? It seems not. It is clear that he told the PM he would resign if Dorneywood was taken from him.
Now Blair has had to interrupt his holiday with a phone call to his deputy to insist he give it up. The image of Prescott the down-to-earth old Labour working class hero has been forever tarnished by those croquet pictures.
Prescott will not give up his title as deputy either - not without triggering a most unwelcome leadership contest.
Triggering a costly election for deputy leader would pile pressure on Blair to go at the same conference. There would be a proxy battle for control of Labour - at just the moment they want to focus on delivery.
Any leadership election will be divisive - the party seem unlikely to vote for a Blairite such as Harriet Harman.
All this leaves Blair in a difficult position. He probably would have sacked Prescott, if it were not for the rules that stipulate the deputy leader of the Labour party must be a cabinet minister.
Holding onto a wounded Prescott, or losing him and being thrust into an unwanted leadership contest, it is a lose-lose situation for the prime minister.