Blaenau Slap for Blair

While governments are expected to lose by-elections, the failure of the Labour party to retake Blaenau Gwent is a major blow to the authority of the prime minister.
The seat is the stuff of Labour legend. It was here that Aneurin Bevan spoke to his coal-mining constituents about the brave new world of a National Health Service. He was MP for 31 years, succeeded by Michael Foot.
For decades Blaenau Gwent was the heart and soul of the Labour party - in 1987 and 1992 it was their safest seat - the LibDems and Tories have never won more than 10% of the vote.
The imposition of woman shortlists in 2005 caused division amongst party activists, and independent Peter Law took the seat from Labour with a whopping majority - 58% to Labour's 32%. In 2001 Labour had 72% of the vote.
The party line was that it was a blip - an isolated local case. With the result of the by-election last night however, it seems to be a pattern. Independent candidates took both the Westminster seat and the Welsh Assembly seat from Labour.
For all the protestations from Hazel Blears that the Blaenau Gwent problem is just a little local difficulty, it does betray a serious disaffection with the government amongst loyalists.
Coupled with the strong showing of the BNP at the council elections earlier in the year, it is yet another indicator that the New Labour project has failed its core constituency.
New independent MP Dai Davies took 46% of the vote - Labour, despite intense campaigning, only increased their share by 5%.
The loss of the Assembly seat is potentially a more serious loss. If Labour had retaken the seat they would have regained their majority in the Assembly - Mr Law's widow Trish was elected with a thumping majority.
Since the start of the New Labour project, the heartlands of the party have been taken for granted. The focus seems to have been on voters in London and the South East - and now Labour are paying the price. As new MP Dai Davies said in his acceptance speech:
"A political revolution is starting in Blaenau Gwent tonight.
"Political parties take note. You take people for granted at your peril. It's the people that matter, not the political parties.
"The dinosaurs thought they would live for ever - they died out. Political parties take note and listen to the people or you're in trouble."
Where does this leave Labour? It certainly gives credence to those who feel a return to traditional socialist values is needed after so many years of Blairist agendas.
The message from the party about the result seems confused. Hazel Blears says it is a freak result, a family feud. In the same breath she says that the party must listen more.
Some in the Westminster village have tried to blame the poor results on Charles Clarke, of all people. The idea that the people of the Welsh valleys rejected the Labour party they have voted for all their life because of a few comments from a bitter ex-minister is baffling.
Labour lost Blaenau Gwent because the core supporters of the party hate the direction their beloved Labour has taken.
Blair has always seemed ill at ease in his own party. This result sends a clear message to Downing St and to the rest of the Labour party - it is time for a change. Not a cosmetic Blair "change". Hazel Blears' desire to "listen" is not enough - she must act.
The people have Blaenau Gwent have rurned up the heat on the prime minister. He will be relieved the parliamentary session is almost over.
He can and will make it to the end of July and remain in office until the autumn. But it is going to be one hell of a Labour conference.

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