Will He Stay or Will He Go Now?

The rumours about the date of the PM's departure have gone into overdrive.
The fall out from Charles Clarke's barbed comments about the government's lack of direction has apparenly forced the PM's hand, say Brownites.
The time has come for a formal handover date - the papers today are full of stories that Blair will make an announcement at party conference in the autumn.
Most commentators think the PM wants to stay on until May 2007, the psychologically important 10 years in office.
This is despite the fact that Clarke actually supported the PM remaining up to 2008. Whatever the reason for Clarke's comments, they have not so much wounded Blair as highlighted the obvious. He has said he is going to go - so when?
The plain fact is that no-one but Blair can be sure when he will go. A crisis could force him out of office, damaging the party into the process.
There is some benefit in the PM staying - there are the elections for the Welsh and Scottish assemblies in May 2007 - Labour are expected to get a kicking.
Some argue that Blair should take the heat for that and then leave.
There is a counter-arguement that if Blair was to go soon, the electorate in Scotland and Wales would have a chance to vote for the new Brown government.
The bookies, always the most level-headed political observers, have pretty much ruled out a Blair departure this year. The odds on 2008 are lengthening, the smart money is sometime in 2007.
Then again, one thing this PM is not is predicable.
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