Friday, December 15, 2006

Blair has his collar felt

As predicted, Tony Blair has finally been questioned by police. It has been argued that the announcement, coming on the same day as Lord Stevens report into the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, and in the middle of a serial murderer story, was a nice bit of burying bad news.

The fact is that if the Met phoned Downing St last week and demanded an hour and a half of the Prime Ministers time, his civil servants would in essence choose when that interview took place.
The Times reports that the PMs spokesman went down to the Commons to reveal to reporters that his boss had been interviewed as soon as the police had left Downing St.


The House of Commons, of course, will not get a chance to question Mr Blair themselves until mid-January. Nice timing. The PM flew off to a Euro summit last night, locked away from reporters with bad attitudes. Then he will be in the Middle East.


There is definitely something a bit fishy about the date of the interview, but then again every day is a bad news day for this government, so it does not make much odds.


If the PM had been cautioned or worse still arrested, Diana rising from the grave only to be murdered by a serial killer would not have kept the story off the front pages.


It looks more and more likely that despite police claims that they have significant evidence, neither the PM or any other political figure will end up in court.


There is the possibility that some minor players will be recommended for prosecution. Lord Levy might perhaps be done for selling peerages, but the PM will not face charges or be forced to resign.


That does not mean there is no fallout from the whole affair. It underlines the fact that Blair is surrounded by spin and lies, and just because he can distance himself from the allegations of selling peerages, in the public mind he did it and everyone knows he did.


The big question is whether Blair will return in January, brass neck intact, and carry on as if nothing has happened. It would be in character, and it may be in Gordon Brown's interest to let Tony linger too long, so that his eventual accession appears more of a 'new dawn' than it really is.


More intriguing still, when Tony Blair is safely at home writing his memoirs, might Prime Minister Brown take a chance on an early election, possibly May 2008, in an attempt to consolidate his majority and secure his own mandate?


Labour party chairman Hazel Blears has told party activists to prepare for an early election, and the other major parties have told journalists they are ready to fight any snap election.


It could be one of the biggest political gambles of the century, but is Gordon a betting man?