Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Will Glasgow East be the end for Gordon?

Yea, yea, I don't have time to blog - so here is another entry - it's only been three weeks.

Fun things have been happening - I met that David Cameron for the first time - he is bulkier in real life - not fat or anything - just meatier. I had a lovely birthday picnic, went to Pride London and have interviewed Boris twice in a week - but not about his troubles unfortunately but about gay related things.

Interesting guy that David Cameron. I was slightly impressed that he rocked up to Glasgow yesterday to do a launch in a by-election he has no chance of winning.

Of course, things are looking very bad for the PM.

House prices are falling, the market for new home buyers has all but disappeared, the people are angry about fuel and rising bills and rising prices.

Even my mum said she would vote him out, if only she could (she lives in Northern Ireland).

That whole mollycoddled generation of English people who think it is normal to buy eight year old children hundreds of pounds worth of gifts twice a year are suddenly feeling the pinch, and Labour MPs in seats that are starting to look to the Tories are more nervous than Adam Rickitt at a selection meeting.

Big name pundits are saying that if Gordon loses the Glasgow East by-election, he is toast. Three disasters in a row - the party as you know lost Crewe and Nantwich, a supposedly safe seat.

They came fifth in the by-election to replace Boris (who the Speaker thinks is the Lord Mayor of London), beaten by them Greens and the lovely BNP.

So the smart talk is all about Labour losing in Glasgow East, and that the PM cannot even attract support in Scotland, and that he will have to go.

I do not buy it. A string of by-election defeats is damaging, but I do not think it is fatal. Perhaps I am naive to make comparisons with John Major, but he lost a string of by-elections during his time as PM and the public hated him too.

Then again, he did not get us involved in any wars and his whole party knew they were going to lose the 1997 election, and indeed Major won in 1992.

And perhaps the public's disaffection with Gordon is of a different order. More visceral.

But the idea that the Labour movement will remove the PM in mid parliament is madness as far as I can see.

It is not just MPs and the Westminster crowd who pick and choose leaders but the affiliated societies, MEPs, the unions and party members.

Are they all baying for his blood?

Also, its bloody difficult to remove a sitting Labour Prime Minister. You need a lot of those MPs to put their head above the parapet and it will cause infighting that the party can ill afford.

It seems to me that no matter how bad things get, Gordon is staying in Number 10 until the bitter end.