Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Blair and Prescott

Seems that Prescott and Tony Blair have a linked destiny. They arrrived together and they intend to leave together.
The Prescott affair is a truly damaging scandal and perhaps the first fatal one the government has faced.
Sure, we have had sex scandals in the Blair years, starting with the moment of madness on Clapham Common by Ron Davies all the way up to Blunkett and that little lad.
This one is starting to look very different. It reminds me of the last days of Major. His ministers were brought down by the press, but in the manner of a fox hunt.
The fox is chased and chased, cornered and cornered again, until exhuasted it gives up.
Prescott seems more damaged this week than he was last week. The mood of MPs has soured and the press show no signs of forgetting about the whole thing.
Blair's loyalty is widely perceived to be for real - he supports Prescott and respects the work he has done for the party. It is also true that a PM without his deputy is a dead man walking. If the press and party can manage to topple Prescott, it will give them a taste of blood and the courage to take on Blair.
This really is crunch time for the PM. He has proved on many occasions that he adheres to the Campbell maxim. If a minister makes the headlines for ten consecutive days he or she is effectively unable to continue to do their job - the scandal has overwhelmed their ability to do the job.
It has been over two weeks since the Prescott scandal broke. The press seem happy to let the story run and run, many MPs are genuinely angry with Prescott. Women MPs in particular feel uncomfortable defending sexual misconduct at work.
If Prescott survives it will be a victory for Blair. If he has to step down, however, it really will have a chilling effect on Downing St. He has chucked ministers overboard before, notably Charles Clarke, but no-one with a leadership election attached.
His last, humiliating option would be to move Prescott to another cabinet role and strip him of his DPM title. I cannot see Prezza taking that route, not even for the good of the party.