Saturday, February 16, 2008

Texas is make or break for the Dems

As Hillary Clinton concentrates her campaign for the White House on the key Texas primary on March 4th, there is more evidence that the Democratic nomination may be slipping out of her grasp.

Polling data from the American Research Group will make for grim reading chez Clinton.

While the former First Lady leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats in Texas 47% to 42%, Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 71% to 24%.

So the voters that the Democratic candidate will need to win in November vastly favour the 46-year-old Senator from Illinois.

A couple of factors in the laughably convoluted primary rules could also favour Obama - delegates in African-American districts will be over-represented among the 126 delegates Texas sends to the convention. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters in the state 76% to 17%.

While Hillary has been counting on pulling in the significant number of Hispanic voters, she only has a slight lead there, and it is the same story among white male voters and women.